内蒙古快3

2017中国木材价格指数走势分析及2018年市场走向

内蒙古快3FABUZHE: LEMASHI  SHIJIAN:2017-12-08

    受国家宏观调控、原材料和人工成本上涨等因素影响,2017年我国木材价格指数走势整体呈上升趋势。其中原木市场势头高涨,人造板市场趋于平稳,锯材市场略有下跌。预计2018年木材行业涨价潮仍将持续,人造板市场将焕发生机。


2017中国木材价格指数走势分析

(一)原木市场

JIEZHI2017NIAN10YUE,YUANMUFENLEIZONGHEZHISHUBAOSHOU1108.49,HUANBIZHANGFU0.2%。SANDASHICHANGLIANGZHANGYIDIE,GUANGZHOUYUZHUYUANMUZHISHUWEI1120.08,SHANGZHANG0.67%;SHANGHAIFURENYUANMUZHISHUWEI1177.26,SHANGZHANG0.04%;SICHUANDAXINANYUANMUZHISHUWEI976.34,XIADIE0.86%。

到目前为止,鱼珠市场进口原木各代表材种仍旧保持畅销的势头,具柄西非肉豆蔻、铁木豆、甘拔、非洲紫檀等依旧是下游厂家热捧的对象,成交价分别为2850元/立方米、3000元/立方米、2650元/立方米、3650元/立方米。

(二)人造板市场

10月底我国人造板价格指数为1024.54,环比下跌1.14%。其中鱼珠市场人造板指数为1070.01,环比上涨0.94%;福人指数为824.01,上涨0.11%;大西南市场指数为1202.34,下跌2.86%。

内蒙古快3 SUIZHECHUANTONGJIAZHUANGWANGJIDEJIESHU,RENZAOBANSHICHANGZHUJIANZOUXIANGPINGJING。YIGUANGDONGYUZHUWEILI,15LI、18LIXIMUGONGBANDAIBIAOPINCHENGJIAOJUNJIAWEI115YUAN/ZHANG、125YUAN/ZHANG,JIAGEJIAOWENDING。

(三)锯材市场

10YUEDIWOGUOJUCAISHICHANGJIAGEZHISHUWEI1115.87,HUANBISHANGZHANG1.17%。YUZHUSHICHANGJUCAIZHISHUWEI1023.98,HUANBIXIADIE0.11%;FURENSHICHANGZHISHUWEI1193.06,SHANGZHANG1.19%;DAXINANSHICHANGZHISHUWEI1145.28,SHANGZHANG3.48%。

内蒙古快3 MUQIANSICHUANDAXINANSHICHANGDAIBIAOPINZHONGSHANMUCHENGJIAOJIABAOSHOU1220YUAN/LIFANGMI;ZIRANKUANFEIZHOUBAIMUCHENGJIAOJIABAOSHOU3180YUAN/LIFANGMI。QITASHICHANGRUFURENSHICHANG,DAIBIAOPINZHONGHONGXIANG、HEIHUTAOCHENGJIAOJIABAOSHOU5800YUAN/LIFANGMI、17200YUAN/LIFANGMI。YENEIRENSHIBIAOSHI,RUHOUQIWUXINYINSUTIZHEN,YUJIJUCAISHICHANGXINGQINGJIANGJIXUXIAHUA。


影响2017年中国木材价格指数走势主因

(一)环保风暴

内蒙古快3 RUGUOSHUO2015NIANSHIHUANBAOZHENGCESHIYADEQISHINIAN,2016SHIHUANBAOZHENGCEBAOFANIAN,NEIME2017JIUSHIHUANBAOGAIGENIAN。《“SHISANWU”TURANGHUANJINGJIANCEZONGTIFANGAN》《TURANGHUANJINGJIANCEGUOKONGDIANWEIBUSHEFANGAN》YIJI《JINGJINJIJIZHOUBIANDIQU2017NIANDAQIWURANFANGZHIGONGZUOFANGAN》DEXIANGJICHUTAI;MEIGAIDIAN、MEIGAIQIDEJIASUTUIJINHE“DAYINGLANTIANBAOWEIZHAN”KOUHAODETICHU,2017NIANZHEICHANGCHIXUZHANGJIUDEHUANBAOFENGBAOXIANQIBINGFUGAIQUANGUO31GESHENGFEN,BUSHAOMUYEQIYETINGCHANZHENGZHISHENZHICHAFENG。ZHONGDUOZHONGXIAOJIAJUQIYEJIANGMIANLINYUANCAILIAOJINQUE、ZIJINCHANPINZHIXIAODENGWEIJI,ZUIZHONGYINBAODAOBICHAO。

(二)供应缺口

JINGUANMUCAIXINGYEZAOSHOUYANZHONGDAJI,SHICHANGZOUHUOSUDUHUANMAN,MUCAIJIAGEYOUSUOXIAJIANG,DANYEYOUBUFENMUCAIYINJIAGONGCHANGTINGCHANYINFASHICHANGGONGBUYINGQIUERZHANGJIA,RUBEIMEIJIASONG,ZAIHUANBAOFENGBAOYUYANYULIEDE8YUE,JIASONGJINKOUCHENGBENTIGAO,DAOHUOLIANGYUKUCUNLIANGYEYOUXIAN,GONGBUYINGQIUDEQINGKUANGXIABIANCHENGZHANGJIAQUSHI。JINQIJIASONGCAIGUONEIWAICHAJIAYIJINGJIBENWENDING,XINGQINGJIAOJIA,QIEHAIYOUJIXUSHANGZHANGDEXINGSHI。LINGWAI,XIANGJIAOMUYUZHANGZISONGJIAGEYEYIDUFEIZHANG,JINQIYIQUYUPINGWEN。

(三)成本提升

RENGONGCHENGBENZENGJIA。DABUFENMUCAIGONGCHANGSHENGCHANFANGSHICHUANTONG,HUANJINGZAOGAO,NANNVBILISHIDIAO,JIAZHI90HOUMEIYOULEJIATINGDESHUFU,TIAOCAOPINFAN,GONGCHANGBUDEBUKAIFADUOZHONGQUDAOZHAOGONG,ZHANGGONGZI、GAISHANSHENGCHANSHENGHUOTIAOJIAN,GAOCHENGBENZHIJIEYASUOLEQIYELIRUN。

YUNSHUCHENGBENZENGJIA。ZI2016NIANXIABANNIANKAISHI,CHUANYUNFEIYONGKAISHIYOUSHANGZHANGQUSHI,GENGYOUOUZHOUCHUANYUNGONGSIFABUTONGGAO,JINNIAN4YUEFENFEIYONGJIANGYAOZHANGDAO2500MEIJINHUOZHEGENGGAO,JINKOUMUCAISHANGNANYICHENGSHOU。JINNIAN11YUE1RIQI,TIELU,HAIYUNJIZHUANGXIANGDENGYUNFEIYEZHENGSHIZHANGJIA,XINGYERENSHIGUJIDIAOJIAHUIZAI5%-8%ZHIJIAN,ERHAIWAIGONGYINGDIDEYUANMUJIAGEYECHIXUSHANGZHANG。

2018木材市场走向预测

(一)租房保障政策细化 推动人造板行业发展

ZHIJIN,QUANGUOCHAO48GECHENGSHIWEITUIJINZULINSHICHANGFAZHAN,XIANGJIDACHULEGEZIDEZHENGCEPAI。ZUOWEIZUIZAOTUIXING“ZUGOUTONGQUAN”ZHENGCEDECHENGSHI,GUANGZHOUYIGEYUELIANFASANFENWENJIANXIHUAZUFANGBAOZHANGZHENGCE。

FANGWUSHICHANGXINZHENG,HUICUISHENGYIPIJIGOUFANGWUZULINZHE。JIASHANGGUOJIAFANGWUZHENGCEDEZHUANBIANYUCHANGDAO,WEILAIDEGONGXINJIECENGWEIBIFEIYAOCHENGWEIZHUFANGYONGYOUZHE,ZUOWEIFANGWUZULINZHEYEKEYIXIANGSHOUZHUDUOSHEHUIFULI。ZAIZHEIYANGDEXINZHENGCETUIDONGXIA,FANGWUZULINSHICHANGBIRANGAOSUZENGZHANG,DUIYUXINJIAJUDEXUQIUYEHUIFANGDA。

2018NIAN5YUE1RI,XINDERENZAOBANBIAOZHUNJIANGQUANMIANSHISHI,BANSHIJIAJUDEJIAQUANWENTIYOUWANGJIEJUE。ZAIXUQIUDUANYUGONGJIDUANDELIANGDALIHAOBIANHUAXIA,BANSHIJIAJUYOUWANGJIECISHANGJIJUANTUZHONGLAI,RENZAOBANXINGYEYIHUIHUANFAXINDESHENGJI。

(二)环保改革影响巨大 木材涨价潮或将持续

HUANBAOYANCHAFANFANFUFU,LANGFANG、XINGTAI、HEZE、LINYI、SHUYANGZHEIJIGEBANCAIJIDI,DAYUEZHANZHONGGUOBANCAICHANLIANGDE70%,XIANHOUSHOUDAOZHONGYANGHUANBAODUCHADUCHAZHONGYA,95%DEBANCAIQIYEBEILINSHITINGCHANZHENGGAI。

QIANXIESHIJIAN,YOUYUSHICHANGCHANNENGGUOSHENG,JIAZHIBEIHENDUOTOUGONGJIANLIAO、KEYIYADIJIAGEDEXIAOSHENGYIRENDALUANLESHICHANGJIAGE,YIZHIYUHENDUOHAODECHANPINNANYIZHANGXIANCHULAI,JIAGEYEYINCITIBUSHANGQU。DANZAIZHENGCEJINQUZHIXIA,DALIANGBUDABIAOQIYEJIANGBEIYANCHENG,ZHEIBIANHUIYINGXIANGSHICHANGSHANGDECUNLIANG,DANGGONGXUMAODUNJINYIBUJIHUA,JIAZHITONGHUOPENGZHANGDAOZHIDEYUANLIAOJIPEITAOZHANGJIAHERIYIGAOZHANGDEHUANBAOCHENGBEN,ZHEISHIBIDAOZHIBANCAICHANPINZHENGTISHANGZHANG。HUANBAOFENGBAOZANSHIBUHUIJIESHU,SUOYIMUCAISHICHANGZHANGJIACHAOKONGJIANGCHIXUDAOMINGNIAN。

(三)禁出口政策相继实施 原木市场供不应求

内蒙古快3 ELUOSIZUOWEIZHONGGUOZUIDADEHUAMUYUANMUCHUKOUGUO,YOUYUWOGUODUIQIHUAMUDEFENGKUANGCAIGOUBINGYIJIAGEYOUSHIWEIYOUER,RAOLUANLEELUOSIHUAMUJIAGEXIANGDUIWENDINGDEGEJU。JINNIAN1YUEELUOSIYIJINGTICHULEXIANZHIHUAMUCHUKOUDEYAOQIU。CIWAI,ELUOSIGONGMAOBUJINNIAN12YUEQIJIANGDUIEYUANDONGCHUKOUDEWEIJIAGONGMUCAISHISHIPEIEZHIBINGXIUDINGCHUKOUGUANSHUISHUILV,XIANGGUANTIANYITIJIAOZHENGFUSHENPI。

内蒙古快3 TONGSHI,JIAPENGZHENGFUJUEDINGBUWANQUANSHISHIDUIGAOSHANBAHUA6GEYUEDEJINFALING,MALAIXIYAZHENGFUQUANMIANJINZHIXIANGJIAOMUCHUKOU。GEDIJINFALINGYIJIJINZHIYUANMUCHUKOUZHENGCEDEXIANGJISHISHIDUIYUWOGUOYUANMUSHICHANGXIANZHUANGLAISHUOWUYISHIXUESHANGJIASHUANG,JIEXIALAIWOGUOYUANMUSHICHANGBIRANGONGBUYINGQIU,MINGNIANYUANMUJIAGEPANGAOYIRANKEJIAN。

MUCAIJIAGESHANGZHANG,MUYEKANSIYIPIANFANRONG,DANZHANGJIADETONGSHI,JINGYINGCHENGBENYESUIZHITIGAO,SHANGJIAMENMIANLINZHEYUELAIYUEDADEYALI,GAOMAIGAOMAIBINGBUNENGDAILAIGENGDADELIRUN,FANERYAOFUCHUGENGDUODESHIJIANYUJINGLI。XINGYEFANRONGDEBEIHOU,SHIMUCAIRENDEJIANXINJINGYING。

(YUANBIAOTI:2017MUCAIXINGQINGFENXIJIMINGNIANSHICHANGZOUXIANGYUCE)




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